“Adopting Probabilistic Forecasts for Secure Operating Planning”
Thursday, Nov. 18 at 1:00pm
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Sponsored by the UF Chapter of the IEEE Power & Energy Society
The rapid integration of variable energy sources (VRES) into power grids increases variability and uncertainty of the net demand, making the power system operation challenging. Operating reserve is used by system operators to manage and hedge against such variability and uncertainty. Traditionally, reserve requirements are determined by rules-of-thumb (static reserve requirements, e.g., NERC Reliability Standards), and more recently, dynamic reserve requirements from tools and methods which are in the adoption process (e.g., DynADOR, DRD, and RESERVE, among others). While these methods/tools significantly improve the static rule-of-thumb approaches, they rely exclusively on deterministic data (i.e., best guess only).
Consequently, these methods disregard the probabilistic uncertainty thresholds associated with specific days and their weather conditions (i.e., best guess plus probabilistic uncertainty). This work presents practical approaches to determine the operating reserve requirements leveraging the wealth information from probabilistic forecasts. Proposed approaches are validated and tested using actual data from the CAISO system. Results show the benefits in terms of risk reduction of considering the probabilistic forecast information into the dimensioning process of operating reserve requirements.
Miguel A. Ortega-Vazquez received the B.Sc. (Hons) degree in Electrical Engineering from the Instituto Tecnológico de Morelia, Mexico, in 1999, the M.Sc. degree from the Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, Nuevo León, Mexico, in 2001, and the Ph.D. degree from The University of Manchester (formerly UMIST), Manchester, U.K., in 2006, all with an emphasis in power systems.
He was a Postdoctoral Scholar at the School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Manchester, until 2010, and Assistant Professor at the Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden, until 2011. In 2012 he joined the University of Washington (UW), as an Assistant Professor, and he now serves as an Affiliate Associate Professor. In 2017 he joined the Grid Operations and Planning group at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), where he is a Principal Technical Leader.
Dr. Ortega-Vazquez’s research interests revolve around the development and application of methods to facilitate an efficient, secure, and sustainable operation and planning of power systems.